http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19354
So here's an article I found through another blog that claims to show a correlation between the rise in the presence of rhinoviruses (that cause the common cold) and the decrease in flu in Sweeden during spring of last year. While it's tempting to jump on the bandwagon here, this is ultimately just correlation. It's important to keep in mind that the climate is changing as well, potentially leading to changes that could make transmission more favorable for one virus and less for another. Also, despite some assertions at the top of the intro, we don't even really have a clear understanding of the cause for why seasonal flu is seasonal, and what effect weather and humidity have on flu transmission. There needs to be more experiments done to continue with this line of research, and this is just a posting of a hypothesis, but I thought it was sort of interesting and so I'm reposting it here.
I'm glad you pointed out that correlation does not equal causation. There is a clear lack of understanding amongst most people of that concept, and, most disturbingly, most of them are policy makers. This is especially dangerous when it is human nature to form a conclusion and then accept shoddy science because it appears to support your position on first glance.
ReplyDeleteYes, and it's very tempting to jump on the bandwagon almost immediately when you see some piece of data that supports it, when in truth there's much more confirmation required.
ReplyDeleteGlad you liked it.